Four months?

Is four months a safe interval for two-shot COVD-19 vaccinations? I have no idea. But just days ago the NACI (National Advisory Committee on Immunization) said that “real world” evidence suggests that a four month period was acceptable for the two-shot vaccines (Astra-Zeneca, Moderna and Pfizer) approved for use in Canada even as it said that, contrary to other “real wold” evidence, the AstraZeneca should not be given to people over 65. Caveat lector: this matters to me because I’m 78.

What I am sure of is that a four month gap between first and second “jabs” will do wonders for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s reelection chances. If we actually start large scale vaccinations in April or May and if we can have a safe long delay between “jabs” then almost all voting age Canadians might get their first jab before August ~ what a great time for a general election!

The members of the NACI all appear to be very highly qualified and I, personally, trust their scientific/medical judgment … but it appears that Pfizer, for example, and the British Medical Association do not. They recommend a maximum of six weeks, not 16, between jabs.

Is that NACI decision driven by politics? I think not. But, I do think it is driven by logistics. I believe that there can be no doubt, not even a tiny shred of doubt that IF Canada had an adequate supply of vaccines then the NACI would never have suggested such a long delay. They are doing so because it is the least bad choice given that, as I said just the other day, Justin Trudeau’s government is FUBAR. They were asked, I suspect, something like: “how do we vaccinate the most people as quickly as possible, given our limited supply?” The obvious answer is to vaccinate everyone once, as quickly as possible and then hope that two things happen:

  • First, the supply situation improves in the late spring/early summer when, for example, the USA will be, effectively, 100% vaccinated; and
  • The effective rate at which one dose prevents spread of the virus is, as the evidence seems to suggest, 75% or more. Then, on the basis of a good prevention rate the four month gap is probably the longest that is scientifically justifiable, no matter what others think.

Prime Minister Trudeau has jumped all over this because it improves his electoral chances. But I reiterate, that is not (I most sincerely believe … and hope) why the National Advisory Committee on Immunization made the recommendation. They did so because they had to, they did so because Prime Minister Trudeau totally screwed up the procurement and supply of vaccines. He failed Canada, again, and he will continue to fail if Canadians give him another term in office, which, as I said yesterday, many seem inclined to want to do.

Published by Ted Campbell

Old, retired Canadian soldier, Conservative ~ socially moderate, but a fiscal hawk. A husband, father and grandfather. Published material is posted under the "Fair Dealing" provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act for the purposes of research, private study and education.

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