So, there is a new Angus Reid Institute poll out, and it has a boat load of bad news for everyone.
First, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau remains mired in minority territory:
Experience with Canada’s five party system, starting from 2006, says that a party needs something slightly in excess of 39% of the popular vote to secure a majority in the House of Commons.
And a majority, I seems to me, is what he wants, quite desperately. As far as I can see, last summer, when other world leaders were actually working, personally, to secure guaranteed vaccine supplies for their countries, Prime Minister Trudeau was focused, almost exclusively, on covering up his (and his family’s) role in the WE Charity Scandal. He fought hard to keep documents secret then he improperly redacted them, then he prorogued Parliament and then sent his
trained seals backbench MPs to filibuster in committees whenever the subject came up. It is no secret that I am vehemently anti-Trudeau (père et fils) but I also really wish that I could find some reason, other than Watergate level wrongdoing to explain the Watergate level coverup attempt. I say that because we, Canadians, have seen more than enough elected MPs led away in handcuffs, none of us wants to see more, and the political system, already weakened by Justin Trudeau’s ineptitude on too many files, doesn’t need that sort of scandal.
Prime Minister Trudeau’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic appears, the Angus Reid Institute says, his only big problem and he might be able to address that by high summer. As the analysts say, the Liberal Party is vey good at digging itself out of holes.
But the news for Erin O’Toole is worse. It seems that the more Canadians get to know him, the less they like him:
Further, the issues that Mr O’Toole seems to be emphasizing: the economic recovery, massive deficits, jobs, foreign policy (especially China) and pipelines matter less to Canadians than do responding to the pandemic, managing health care and fighting climate change:
My reading of this says that a summer (July/August) election, held while a vaccination programme is in full swing, is highly possible and if it is a referendum on Prime Minister Trudeau’s handling of the pandemic and of Trudeau vs O’Toole on issues like the environment and “caring and sharing” then Justin Trudeau will have a good shot at another majority and Erin O’Tool will be a lame duck leader while the Conservative Party looks its third chief in two years.