The question (2)

A few weeks ago I said that Senator Leo Housakos had, finally, asked the right question: why, he wanted to know, as do I, was the Trudeau Regime mounting a Watergate level coverup? Was it, is it, to conceal Watergate level (that is to say criminal) wrongdoing. I said ~ and I mean ~ that I hoped not because we, Canadians have seen enough public figures in handcuffs. A few weeks before that I noted that Evan Solomon may have gotten close to the issue which, I suggest might be that “there is real fear in the WE boardrooms and in WE’s legal department that Prime Minister Trudeau might be guilty of something more than just conflict of interest.

Which brings me to the big question: Will there be a Canadian general election in 2021? John Ibbitson writes, in the Globe and Mail, that “Justin Trudeau acknowledged, Friday, that there may be a federal election this year, though the Prime Minister insists he doesn’t want one. The question is whether an election, if it comes, will hinge on the ambitious budget that we are expecting from the Liberals this spring, or on the government’s ability to deliver COVID-19vaccines.” There is considerable additional speculation in the media that we will have one because Justin Trudeau desperately wants a majority ~ I continue to suggest that covering up his and his family’s role in the WE Charity Scandal, not the pandemic, is what is driving him ~ and he saw that Blaine Higgs (New Brunswick) and John Horgan (British Columbia) converted minority government into solid majorities in 2022. It must look to him like, in the midst of a global pandemic, Canadians don’t want to change horse in midstream.

The problem for Justin Trudeau is that the current polling suggests that he is not near to majority government territory and the concerns, even official concerns over vaccine supply suggests that his standing is unlikely to improve in the Spring. But, if I’m right, if making the Watergate level coverup work is the key issue, then I suspect we’ll go to the polls in the late Spring. He can only keep parliament, especially Michael Barrett and Pierre Poilievre, away for so long. The questions will start again; the international media is, already, digging deeper, he bought-and-paid-for component of the Canadian media cannot ignore it forever.

Additionally, I believe that the evidence is now showing that Prime Minister Trudeau lied when he said we had enough vaccine or order to inoculate most Canadians by early fall. It appears we have options on hundreds of millions of doses but few firm contacts. He may have to go on the campaign trail explaining why early fall 2021 has become sometime in 2022 … many months after most Americans are vaccinated and free to resume normal lives.

But what will happen?

OK, here’s a guess ~ it’s what we, in the Army, used to call a WAG (which means a wild arsed guess, which distinguishes from a SWAG which is a scientific wild arsed guess):

It is based on some assumptions:

  • First, the Liberal campaign on the political left is working well and that means that the Liberals will take many seats away from the NDP;
  • Second, the Conservative campaign, especially in suburban Ontario, is also working well, even better, in fact, and they will take many, many more seats away from the Liberals; and
  • Third the COVID crisis in Québec is frightening, it’s not unfair to call it a disaster, and many, Many, MANY Québécois and Québécoise will vote for their provincial party, the BQ, which will take seats away from all federalist parties.

It is possible, I am guesstimating, that we could have a “perfectly hung” parliament: 140 seats each for the Conservatives and the Liberals, big gains for the BQ and the Greens but neither the Greens nor the NDP earn the 12 seats which is required for having official party status in the House of Commons.

Then what happens?

Well, officially, nothing much: Justin Trudeau still remains prime minister until Parliament reconvenes AND he fails to secure a majority in a vote of confidence. He has only two choices ~ he needs 169 votes (agains only 168, with the Speaker abstaining) to survive. Even the LPC + Greens + NDP is not enough:

  • First, an alliance, of some sort with the Bloc Québécois ~ that gives him 180 seats, a comfortable majority. But many Canadians (most Canadians?) including many Liberals, will be horrified at the idea of doing a deal with the separatist party that wants to destroy Canada. He probably would lose some MPs. If he lost 11 Liberals who said “no truck or trade with the BQ” then he would be back in minority territory; or
  • Second, a formal government of national unity ~ we had one, of a sort, in 1917 ~ which would likely have to be a formal ConservativeLiberal coalition with a shared cabinet and a fixed lifespan. This would be anathema, I think, to too many Liberals, especially to the Trudeau wing.

There are no good choices for Justin Trudeau. He wants a majority government; the why isn’t really all that important. The polls say he’s only in minority territory; in modern Canada ones wins majorities with 38.4% or 40.3% or just a mere 37.7% of the popular vote but not with only 35.6%. Waiting might only make things worse … “things” being renewed interest in the WE Charity Scandal, poor vaccine delivery and polling numbers.

The question is: when does Canada go to the polls: April? June? or September? The real question might be: just how desperate is Justin Trudeau … and why?

By Ted Campbell

Old, retired Canadian soldier, Conservative ~ socially moderate, but a fiscal hawk. A husband, father and grandfather. Published material is posted under the "Fair Dealing" provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act for the purposes of research, private study and education.

2 comments

Leave a comment

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s