Someone help me out here, please

So, this chart, from Dr Jennifer Kwan, is making the rounds. I do NOT question the numbers:

Image

Now, I’m guessing that this was Stage 1 (or the first wave) …

… and it featured a rapid spread and modestly quick resolution of most cases, but a very high death rate. Am I right to assume, and here’s where I really welcome readers’ help, that many, many (most?) of those deaths occurred in long term care facilities (nursing homes) which, eventually, the military had to clean up for us?

I guess we are now seeing Stage 2 (the second wave) …

… once again a rapid spread and a nice quick resolution of most cases, but the death rate is very low. Is that because the really vulnerable people, almost three thousand of them, died because of the conditions in long term care facilities? Did we, to be a bit crude, cull the herd? Is COVID-19 serious, with maybe some unknown long-term effects, but rarely fatal for most people, even 78 year olds like me, who take a few easy and sensible precautions and are lucky enough to live in their own nice, clean, safe homes?

Is the spread in the second wave/Stage 2, which seems to be concentrated in people under age 40 in a few urban regions, caused by them failing to take those “few easy and sensible precautions,” like wearing masks and avoiding crowds, and is the death rate so low because they, the under-40s, are healthier than the people who were in long term care facilities and have far fewer underlying conditions, especially respiratory problems?

Is is necessary or even advisable to close bars and restaurants and health clubs again or is Premier Ford right to want only a few stricter measures to prevent people from gathering in crowds?

I am seriously interested in informed opinions, specially about why the death rate remains low (am I right or wrong about the long term care facility aspect of it?) and the measures we need to take to contain the second wave/Stage 2.

Published by Ted Campbell

Old, retired Canadian soldier, Conservative ~ socially moderate, but a fiscal hawk. A husband, father and grandfather. Published material is posted under the "Fair Dealing" provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act for the purposes of research, private study and education.

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2 Comments

  1. Ted, I believe you are right here. 89.4% of deaths over 70 and something like 75% from long term care homes.
    12,406 people hospitalized, 2516 admitted to ICU and 471 were on a ventilator and 9417 dead in total. In Ontario there are currently 206 in hospital, 47 in ICU, and 29 on ventilators. Protecting the vulnerable is in my opinion the key to keeping deaths down and the dismal failure to do that at the start, when it was a known issue with the data coming out of Italy and the UK is and was shameful. Proper biological contamination procedures were lacking in LTC homes but also hospitals, I have witnessed the poor technique myself such that would get you kicked out of a 1st year Biology lab

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