Buyer’s remorse?

I see that the Angus Reid Institute has new polling data that says that “Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his minority Liberal government are bearing the scars of what has been a most bruising start to a federal government’s year … [because] … While the first 60 days of 2019 were defined by a political scandal, the beginning of 2020 has been marked by events at home and abroad that have demanded deft and adroit response … [which seemed quite beyond the capabilities of the Trudeau-Freeland regime, and] … Unfortunately for Trudeau, the latest public opinion data from the Angus Reid Institute finds the PM’s performance has been lacking in recent weeks, particularly on the energy and climate change front, and this has had a negative impact on his approval numbers.

The most recent quarterly survey of more than 5000 adults,” the report says, “shows the improved view of him in the wake of the devastating Iran plane crash that killed 57 Canadians in January has evaporated, after weeks of conflict and lack of resolution around the Coastal GasLink blockades … [and] … The Prime Minister’s approval rating has dropped 10 points, and now sits at 33 per cent, right around where it was for most of 2019.

What we learned in 2019, however, is that Justin Trudeau can win an election even when most Canadians know that he’s an incompetent bungler with low ethical and moral standards.

Other key findings are that:

  • Screen Shot 2020-03-04 at 08.33.4734 per cent of Canadians would vote for the Conservative Party of Canada if a new election were held, exactly the proportion of votes that the party received in October, compared to one-quarter (26%) who say they’d vote Liberal;”
  • Trudeau’s approval remains strongest among Canadians under 35 years old. Approval among this group, however, has not held a majority since 2018, and is currently down to 37 per cent;” and
  • Each party maintains a significant portion of its voters from 2019. Notably, however, the Liberal Party and Green Party appear to have lost the most support, with one-in-three past voters for each saying they would vote differently now.”

Is it a serious case of buyer’s remorse? Or can the Canadian electorate be distracted, again, by phoney threats about the triumph of evil social-conservatives? Fully half of all Canadians, the polling data says, are persuaded that the country is oneth wrong track:

Screen Shot 2020-03-04 at 09.00.36

A year ago, as the SNC-Lavalin/Obstruction of Justice/Demotion of Jody Wilson-Raybould scandal unfolded, even more Canadians were persuaded that the country was on the wrong track. The blackface thing kept them there, but time and a strong anti-Scheer campaign took their toll and by the end of the year many Canadians were satisfied that they had not made a mistake by voting Liberal.

The voter intention data …

Screen Shot 2020-03-04 at 09.07.50seems, to me, to show that:

  • First, Canadian never really warmed to Andrew Scheer. The Conservative Party got a boost in February 2019 thanks to the Lavalin/Obstruction/Wilson-Raybould thing but it didn’t last;
  • Second; the Liberals‘ pre-election spending spree in the summer of 2019 worked for them. Canadians like free stuff; and
  • Third, the NDP, rather than the Conservatives, are benefitting from the current crises. I chalk part of that up to the fact that while Andrew Scheer is a lame-duck leader, he is, still, the face of the Conservative Party.

My question remains: are Canadians seriously fed-up with Justin Trudeau or will the Liberals be able to work another minor miracle?

Published by Ted Campbell

Old, retired Canadian soldier, Conservative ~ socially moderate, but a fiscal hawk. A husband, father and grandfather. Published material is posted under the "Fair Dealing" provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act for the purposes of research, private study and education.

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