Jonathan Kay, an excellent journalist and commentator, posted this on social media a couple of days ago:
This is the full image:
That is, I think, what we are watching the Democratic Party do in the United States this year. It is why I continue, quite confidently, to predict that Donald J Trump will be re-elected this fall, and it is why I think he will be replaced by another, albeit less abrasive, Trumpian in 2024.
But it got me to thinking … and I came up with this:
I think the Conservative Party leader is less important than a Conservative platform that makes sense to most Canadians. I believe that the CPC must have a programme, a suite of policies ~ social, economic, defence, environmental, law-and-order, foreign and immigration and, and, and ~ that appeal to almost all Canadians, including more voters in Atlantic Canada, Québec and many, many more in the all-important suburbs around the Great Toronto and Greater Vancouver areas.
I sais “almost all,” because there are always going to be some Canadians ~ let’s say 33±% of the electorate ~ who will never vote Conservative … they would vote for a rabid dog before they would vote for anyone labelled as any sort of conservative. But, as leaders as diverse and John G Diefenbaker and Brian Mulroney proved, in my lifetime, more than 50% of Canadians can be persuaded to vote Conservative, and as Jean Chrétien (in 2000) Stephen Harper (in 2011) and Justin Trudeau (in 2015) proved, 39-41% is sufficient to win a solid majority government IF the vote is “efficient.” An efficient vote is one that wins many seats by just enough votes rather than winning the most votes, overall, as Andrew Scheer did in 2019, but still losing too many seats in Central and Eastern Canada.
The media didn’t win the election for Justin Trudeau, the voters did. Despite an ailing economy, higher taxes, foreign policy fumbles, ‘LavScam‘ and the blackface thing, Conservatives were unable to persuade enough Canadians, especially in Ontario, where, given it has 121 of 338 seats, elections are won and lost, that the CPC deserved their vote. Andrew Scheer’s stumbles on the gay-pride-parade issue hurt, but, mainly, many, many Canadians still believed the Liberal Party‘s message more than they believed the CPC‘s messages.
There are some puritans in the Conservative Party who believe that a pretty hard-right ideology is more important than giving Canada good government. They are all good folks and good Conservatives, too, but they are wrong. The aim of the Conservative Party ~ and aim which must be front and centre at all times ~ must be to serve Canada: to give Canada good, sound, honest and principled government. It is only if the CPC can convince Canadians that it is their party, reflecting their interests and concerns, then it will not be a perpetual loser in future elections.