I have not been paying a whole lot of attention to the testimony in the Donald Trump impeachment hearings in the US House of Representatives, because I continue to believe that:
- The House will vote to impeach the president;
- There will be both joy and outrage on the streets ~ and likely violence, even armed violence, too, when the joyful and the outraged meet, as they surely will;
- The United States Senate will not convict President Trump … no matter what the evidence might be; and
- The Democrats will pick a candidate who cannot beat President Trump in 2020 and he will be re-elected.
I would not be surprised if even more Trump allies and agents, including Rudy Giuliani, end up ruined or in jail, although Mr Giuliani seems unconcerned about being thrown under the bus … but they are inconsequential.
Lawrence Martin, a columnist with whom I almost never agree, gets it right in the Globe and Mail. With the most recent testimony, he writes, “the scandal ascended the Richter scale. But it might not make it any easier for the Democrats to bring down Mr. Trump. With so much at stake now, with his top men endangered, there will be a circling of the wagons, a manning of the barricades seldom seen. Any nefarious measures will be employed for damage-control purposes … [but] … The [Republican] party will rely on Mr. Trump’s remarkable capacity to extricate himself from seemingly dire situations … [and, to illustrate, he says, there is] … A Jeff Stahler newspaper cartoon was making the rounds on Capitol Hill with a telling message. It showed Richard Nixon claiming “I am not a crook” and Donald Trump saying “I am a crook. So what?”“
It is, Mr Martin says, indicative of America’s willingness, even eagerness to hold President Trump to a different, much lower standard than America would apply to almost anyone else ~ politicians, superstar athletes or Hollywood celebrities. The Trump Party and that precariat about which I have written, do not believe that Mr Trump is innocent ~ they simply don’t care that he is guilty because he, speaks for them … and he is only one who does.
Lawrence Martin analyses the recent testimony and the Republic reactions to it, and it’s all fascinating stuff for political junkies, but, like Rudy Giuliani, it’s inconsequential. What matters is that even if he’s impeached, even if he loses in 2020, even if he’s charged and convicted in a criminal court, and sent to prison, the Trump Party will still exist. If I’m wrong ~ always at least a possibility and usually a probability ~ and a Democrat is elected president in 2020 the travails that beset America will persist until the fears of the precariat are put to rest, and that is something that I believe can happen only when liberalism is reinvigorated and regains control of the political agenda in the US-led West, including in Canada. So we are talking about an era when neither Trump nor the Trudeaus, père et fils, matter any more.