Danger! Polls ahead

Philippe J. Fournier is the creator of 338Canada.com and he is a regular contributor to L’actualité magazine and a professor of physics and astrophysics at Cégep de Saint-Laurent in Montréal. Maclean’s magazine will be publishing his aggregated and weighted poll results in the run-up to the October election. In his most recent report, dated 5 May 19, Professor Fournier says that “To calculate the following 338 projection, polls are carefully weighted by field date, sample size, and broken down per region of the country. The 338 model also includes demographic data from the Canadian census in its simulations to link the movement of public opinion per electoral district. Historical data of past elections is also taken consideration in the model. Details of the 338 methodology and past performance of the model can be found here …[but, he emphasizes] … Readers should know that this is not a prediction of the outcome of the next election, but rather a projection of where the major parties stand according to current data. When/if the data changes, the projection then adjusts itself … [and, with that understanding, and] … With 169 days until the federal election, here is the 338Canada electoral projection for May 5th 2019:

Fig 1 ~ the likely popular vote ranges, if an election were held right now

POLL2.png

Fig 2 ~ the likely seat count, based on the popular support, above, if an election were held now

POLL3.png

And, to summarize, Fig 3 ~ the chances of forming a government: 90+% for the CPC, only 8.5% for the LPCPOLL7.png

That looks like great news for Andrew Scheer’s Conservatives and we might say that the election is his to lose … and, of course, that’s what many pundits said about Tom Mulcair and the NDP in the summer of 2015; look how that turned out.

This report is dangerous, as are others like it because it (and they) may lull too many Conservatives into a false sense of security. There are 5 months to go, and the Liberals are formidable campaigners, and Justin Trudeau does well on the campaign trail … he’s good with crowds. Now is not the time to stop sending money to the CPC, now is not the time to stop reminding your friends, neighbours and colleagues that the Trudeau Liberals have broken promise after promise after promise and have messed up Canada’s finances and have annoyed and insulted our allies and trading partners, now is not the time to sit on our hands … now is the time to ignore the polls and focus on presenting Canadians with sensible, attractive alternatives to the failed policies that Team Trudeau has tried to inflict upon our country.

Don’t believe the polls. They are just a snapshot of voter intentions today, they are not believable unless and until the Conservatives work hard to convince Canadians that they, not Justin Trudeau’s Liberals, deserve their votes.

 

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