Some good news: a self-inflicted wound

Global News has developed a seat projection by blending the results of polls done by “Nanos, Forum, Angus Reid, Leger and Mainstreet conducted between mid-March and mid-April … [and they say] … Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party is likely to win — but not by a majority … [the polls represent] … over 15,000 individual interviews, although companies using the IVR (robocall) format were down-weighted in the process.

Here is the Global News seat projection:

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And here, is that same projection based on six regions:

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The Conservative lead is solid in Alberta and the Prairies/North regions, the Liberals lead, equally solidly in Atlantic Canada and Quebec and the two are nearly even in BC and in vote-rich Ontario. Although Global guesses that if these numbers hold there will a Liberal minority government those same numbers show that a swing of just 10 of 338 seats (about 3%) could produce a Conservative minority, instead.

A week or so ago, on 16 Ap 19, Éric Grenier, who tracks and aggregates poll results for CBC News reported that:

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This, he suggested, meant that:

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About a month ago, on 28 Mar 19, Global News reported thatSupport for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals has significantly dropped, according to a new Ipsos poll exclusively done for Global News. At the same time, support for the Conservatives has risen.” The numbers, done for Global News by Ipsos were:

Nationally:

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And in seat-rich Ontario, which many experts say will decide the next election:

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Global‘s Mercedes Stephenson says that the polling shows that the ongoing SNC-Lavalin scandal is driving this precipitous decline in Liberal support.

In the 2015 election, the Liberals received 39.5% of the popular vote which translated into 184 of 338 seats. The Conservatives got 31.9% of the vote which earned them 99 seats and the NDP got 19.7% and 44 seats. Essentially, with over six months to go before the election, Ipsos was showing those results being reversed for the Conservatives and Liberals with only a slight increase, well within the margin of error, for the NDP.

In Ontario, in 2015, the Liberals earned 44.8% of the popular vote which translated into 80 seats; the Conservatives got 35% of the vote and 33 seats. Those results are not quite reversed, but, allowing for the poll’s margin of error they could be CPC: 43.5 and LPC: 24.5. What is encouraging, for Conservatives, is that the NDP popularity in Ontario has grown from 16.6% (8 seats) in 2015 to somewhere between 24.5 and 31.5% ~ my guess is that is ALL at the expense of Justin Trudeau’s Liberals.

Even in Quebec, where the Liberals took with 40 of 78 seats with 35.7% of the popular vote in 2015 compared to the CPC which won 12 seats with 16.7% of the vote, things have also changed:

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Liberal support remains string but both the Conservatives and the BQ have made gains, at the NDP’s expense (down from 25.4% in 2015 to somewhere between 8.5% and 15.5% now). Those numbers suggest that the CPC could win a few more seats in Quebec ~ perhaps as many as five more?

This is good news. The most probable outcome, Éric Grenier guesses, is a Conservative minority government; there is an almost equal chance of a CPC majority; the chances of the Liberals forming a government are significantly lower, according to M Grenier ~ there was, two weeks ago, about a 58% chance of a CPC government vs a 42% chance of a Liberal one. The key thing, as Éric Grenier says, is that “The Conservatives have led in the polls since February, moving ahead of the Liberals as their support dropped in the wake of the SNC-Lavalin affair.” Some polls, like Ipsos‘, have the CPC leading by double digits, others, obviously, given the results of the aggregations, have the CPC and Liberals almost tied; a lot depends on how each question is phrased.

My guess remains that IF Jane Philpott decides to run for the Greens their chances will jump from around 1 to 7 seats (based on 8+% of the popular vote) to 12+ seats, some of which, I suspect the Greens would take from the Liberals. If that happens then I think the chances of a Conservative victory increase because she will be a constant reminder of Justin Trudeau’s weak leadership and low ethical standards. The reminders will be even more pronounced if Jody Wilson-Raybould decides to run as an independent or even for the Greens or the NDP.

But, it’s important to affirm that none of this ‘good news,’ I hasten to point out, has been earned by Andrew Scheer; it is ALL a self-inflicted wound made to the Liberal Party by Justin Trudeau; he and he alone is losing the 2019 election … Andrew Scheer is not winning it.

To win the election Andrew Scheer has to roll out a platform that appeals to Canadians in big towns, small cities and, above all, in the vote-rich suburbs around Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Montreal and Halifax and, especially in Southern and Eastern Ontario, because he needs to do in 20189 what Stephen Harper did in 2011:

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Prime Minister Harper persuaded enough Canadians, especially those in Ontario, that he and his team were more fiscally, socially and ethically responsible than the available alternatives. He did that by promising just enough of what people really wanted and needed, especially an array of fiscal policies that convinced Canadians that the Conservatives were good money managers who were not hell-bent on slashing the social safety net and Canadians believed that Stephen Harper would NOT impose a social-conservative government.

Canadians, especially those in the small cities and vote-rich suburbs in BC and Ontario, which the CPC must win, are social moderates who feel overtaxed and who worry about climate change.

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