Good news

About a month ago the Angus Reid Institute published the results of a fairly small poll (n=871) which was taken after the Globe and Mail broke the SNC-Lavain/Jody Wilson-Raybould story but before her bombshell testimony to the House of Commons Justice Committee. Although the overall results …

SNCMetho

… were encouraging for the CPC, it was a small sample, and, I said that, in my opinion, “the news is not great for Andrew Scheer. His popularity is, now, somewhat higher than Prime Minister Trudeau’s but all three main party leaders have negative favourable ratings and the Conservatives need, above all, a vote split on the progressive left which Jagmeet Singh does not appear to be delivering.”\

Well, now the Angus Reid Institute has delivered a new, quite large (n=5289) survey which shows a similar result:

vote-intention-metho

The report says that “The Conservatives capture 37 per cent of the decided and leaning vote – essentially unchanged from where they stood last month – but it is the governing Liberals who have dropped three points to 28 per cent as the SNC-Lavalin affair has remained in the headlines … [and] … The principal beneficiaries of this decline in Liberal support appear to be the New Democratic Party and smaller parties, including the Green Party and the People’s Party of Canada.” The report also notes that “Conservative strength comes from the party’s higher retention rate. The party is holding the votes of nearly nine-in-ten who voted CPC in 2015, while fewer than six-in-ten 2015 Liberals say they’re inclined to vote for Trudeau’s party again today:

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The report goes on to say that “Perhaps the biggest advantage for the Conservative Party at this stage is the firmness of its base. While a significant proportion of potential Liberal and NDP supporters say they are uncertain or only somewhat certain that they will, indeed, end up supporting one of those two left-of-centre parties, four-in-five Conservatives say they are very certain about where they stand … [but] … This is not a new phenomenon. The CPC had the most committed base in ARI polling ahead of the 2015 election as well, but were unable to rally enough voters outside of that base to retain former Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s majority government.

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It is vital, for Conservatives, to remember one other thing that the Angus Reid Institute says: “A lot can change during a federal election campaign. In 2015, each of the three main federal parties held the lead in Angus Reid Institute polling at some point between the time writ was dropped and election day.” There are still about six months to go before Canadians cast their ballots. As I have said, on social media …

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… Team Trudeau seems to believe that there is something BIG that absolutely MUST remain hidden from Canadians. These folks are formidable campaigners; they will, I harper_is_a_nazi_by_soullessarkangelsuspect, continue to stonewall and coverup the Philpott/SNC-Lavalin/Wilson-Raybould scandal ~ and that’s what it is ~ for as long as they can, until November if they can, and they will fight like wild animals to save Justin Trudeau, they will use whatever tactics come to hand, nothing will be beyond them … we’ve seen that before. We must expect to see it again, but, likely, worse, in 2019.

There is one other matter of interest to Conservatives: Maxime Bernier’s People’s Party michael_de_adder_bernier_s_new_partysits at nearly 5% of the vote … enough to win one or two seats, perhaps, depending upon how his support is concentrated or dispersed. Many Conservatives, including me, have some sympathy for some of M. Bernier’s ideas, but everyone, every conservative or libertarian must understand that a vote for Maxime Bernier’s candidate is, de facto, a vote for four more years of Justin Trudeau’s corruption and ineptitude. Just as Conservatives wish for a vote split on the left they must, now, worry about a similar split on the right.

37% of the vote is as close as damn is to swearing to majority territory … Justin Trudeau got a solid majority (184 of 338 seats (54% of the seats) with just over 39% of the popular vote i 2015 and Stephen Harper won 166 of 308 seats (53% of the seats) inn 2011 with just a shade higher percentage than Trudeau earned in 2015, but still under 40% of the vote. Ontario, and especially the suburbs around Toronto (and those around other cities like Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton and Ottawa) are critical and there is still a lot of room for the CPC to improve there:

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This report is good news, for the CPC and for Canada, but it’s just one snapshot and there is plenty of time for Team Trudeau to turn things around … and for Andrew Scheer and/or Jagmeet Singh to drop the ball.

—–

Edited to add: Global News reports on an Ipsos poll that seems to confirm the Angus Reid Institute report. The report says that “If an election were held tomorrow, the Conservatives would receive 40 per cent of the vote among decided voters, according to the poll of 1,002 Canadians conducted between March 25 and 27 … [and] … That’s unchanged since Ipsos’ last poll on March 4 … [but] … The Liberals would receive 30 per cent of the vote — down one point — while the NDP would receive 21 per cent and the Bloc Quebecois five per cent.” That’s a 10 point spread and it is certainly in solid majority government territory.

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