… and here is some unsolicited (and possibly even unwelcome) advice for the Liberal Party’s grownups (and there are still some) who may yet have a bit of influence on Team Trudeau. It is based on my current guesstimate that the Liberals can be re-elected with a (probably weak) minority in 2019 but will be, almost certainly, back on the opposition benches, facing a Conservative government, before mid 2021. What to do? Well, my suggestions are:
- First, sauve qui peut ~ accept that by mid 2021 Justin Trudeau and Gerald Butts will be gone, thankfully, and the Party will need, and will certainly welcome new adult leadership. Also gone will be Scott Brison (one of the main catalysts for tomorrow’s shuffle) and Ralph Goodale (age, I suspect), both of whom the Liberal Party will miss. Who, then, are the ‘adults’ left in cabinet, right now? In my opinion there are only a few, mainly: Jim Carr, Mark Garneau, Dominic LeBlanc, Lawrence MacAulay, Catherine McKenna, Jane Philpottt and, just outside, looking in, Andrew Leslie. Given your Party’s tradition of alternating the leadership between English and French Canadians I think your next leaders are quite likely to be one of Carr or MacAulay, as interim leader, and then, after a convention, someone like Leslie, McKenna or Philpott as the next real leader;
- Therefore, second, put potential leaders into key portfolios, now. For example, I think that by this summer/fall it will be obvious that the whole Liberal climate change agenda is a farce. Liberal apologists are already saying that a carbon tax which is low enough to not damage the Canadian economy will not ‘fix’ anything ~ instead Canadians are being asked to believe that it will, simply, prevent things from getting a lot worse. For that reason my key recommendation is to shuffle Catherine McKenna out of Climate Change and into, say, Justice, where she can shine. For similar reasons, a person regarded as able by many, being tied to a series of policy failures, I think Andrew Leslie should move up into Foreign Affairs, after Chrystia Freeland is shuffled, sideways, into, say, Intergovernmental Affairs. I think Mark Garneau should go to Finance or Industry and Jane Philpott should move from Indigenous Services to a major economic portfolio like Industry or Finance. I think Dr Philpott is real star and you ought not to risk losing her, or your Party’s long term prospects will be dimmer; and
- Finally, as the bridge players say, get rid of the losers ~ that would include, above all, Ahmed Hussen, Mélanie Jolie, Maryam Monsef, Seamus O’Regan and Harjit Sajjan. Kirsty Duncan might be a good choice to succeed Mr Sajjan in Defence and Mary Ng might well replace Mr Hussen in Immigration. But most of you probably understand that it is time to clean house and your current cabinet has some inexplicable members; get rid of them before they do even more harm.
You’re welcome …