A contrarian view on Trump v. China

Yadong Liu, who is currently the CEO of CEFC Global Strategic Holdings, the NYC based investment arm of the  China Energy Fund Company (CEFC) headquartered in Shanghai, and who is also the President of the China Energy Fund Committee (USA), a think-tank that promotes research and exchanges in energy and related fields,* explains, in an article in Foreign Affairs that, since the election of Donald Trump there have been two shifting views of the Sino-American relationship. “For the first year of Donald Trump’s presidency,” he says, “most Western commentators on U.S.-Chinese relations saw the Trump administration’s approach to China as a strategic failure; some even concluded that Chinese President Xi Jinping had duped Trump … [but, recently, he says] … a different narrative has emerged in Western media. According to this view, Trump’s pressure on China is working, and Chinese leaders are worried. Trump’s 25 percent tariffs on $50 billion of Chinese imports are hurting the Chinese economy at a time when China is over-leveraged and growth is slowing down, advocates of this view assert. Meanwhile, they say, Trump’s July meeting with European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker was a brilliant tactical feint: by negotiating a “cease-fire agreement” over trade with the EU, Trump united the West against China. In September, Trump showed his resolve by imposing tariffs on an additional $200 billion worth of Chinese imports. At the same time, according to some reports, dissent over Xi’s one-man control of Chinese strategy is growing within China, and Chinese leaders are looking for ways to mollify Trump.”

Mr Liu thinks that “this [latter] narrative is almost the exact opposite of the truth. The fact is that, despite escalating trade tensions, Beijing should still see Trump as the ideal U.S. president for China. Trump’s withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, his tough approach to trade with Japan, and his talk of removing U.S. troops from South Korea all served China’s interests by accelerating the decline of U.S. influence in Asia, opening space for China to expand its influence even faster than it had ever thought possible. China could hardly hope for a more cooperative occupant of the White House.

Yadong Liu, who is well connected in Beijing, says that the Chinese leadership remains content with the idea that President Trump is still China’s best choice because “Beijing’s confidence is rooted in economics. In the game that Washington and Beijing are playing on trade, China holds a number of cards that are not well appreciated among American analysts—and perhaps not by U.S. policymakers either. Balance-of-trade statistics show that China runs a $370 billion trade surplus with the United States but don’t show who is garnering the profits from these exports. Most of the Chinese exports that Trump is trying to strangle with tariffs are either produced or marketed not by Chinese but by Taiwanese, South Korean, and U.S. companies. One example of this is the iPhone, which is produced with Chinese labor by Taiwanese-owned factories and marketed by Apple, a U.S. corporation. As Chinese Premier Li Keqiang pointed out in warning against a trade war in March last year, “More than 90% of [the] profits [in examples like this] were taken by the United States. We have statistics showing that last year, China-U.S. trade and investment created more than one million jobs in the United States” … [and] … much of the money that U.S. firms earn in China is not reflected in trade statistics, because it accrues to U.S. companies and joint U.S.-Chinese ventures that produce within China for the Chinese market. For some of the largest American companies, including automobile and aircraft manufacturers, the Chinese market is more important for future growth than the U.S. market. And if the trade war heats up, China has numerous legal ways to frustrate U.S. firms’ success in the Chinese market. Washington would have no way to retaliate, because the U.S. market is not particularly important to Chinese firms.” Now this is fairly complex, balance sheet, stuff but, Mr Liu points out that “Chinese leaders long ago took the measure of Trump. He is above all a businessman, not a strategist. What is more, his primary long-term concern is the profitability of his own enterprises, a goal that he prioritizes over the advancement of U.S. national interests. China has already been helpful to Trump’s personal bottom line. It has, for example, fast-tracked the approval of trademarks owned by Ivanka Trump and supported development projects in Indonesia that involve the Trump Organization. And Beijing, which is rarely bashful about offering business opportunities as incentives or paybacks to foreign politicians, can be even more helpful to Trump in the future.” In essence, Yadong Liu says that the Chinese leadership is confident that it can bribe Donal Trump. It’s a pretty damning assessment of America’s president … I fear it is an accurate assessment, too.

He also says something that should, by now, be clear to Canadians: “Trump’s primary interest is, not surprisingly, to stay in power. To do so, he needs to deliver a string of victories to his electoral base. His method has become clear: he creates an atmosphere of crisis and then stages a dramatic but cosmetic resolution that changes nothing. This was the pattern in his initial dealings with China, when he talked tough and then hosted Xi for a love-fest at Mar-a-Lago. He followed the same playbook with North Korea, first threatening war and then announcing an end to the North Korean threat, even as Pyongyang continues to build its nuclear arsenal. His meeting with Juncker to solve the U.S.-European trade dispute was another fake resolution of a manufactured crisis. Beijing remains unconcerned about a U.S.-EU common trade policy against China: the China market is too important to European firms for them to so explicitly take sides.

Mr Liu concludes by saying that “For Beijing, the fundamental contradiction in current U.S.-Chinese relations is structural: as China continues to catch up with the United States economically and militarily, there is bound to be tension. Beijing doesn’t expect Washington to give up its dominant position without a fight and never expected smooth sailing regardless of who won the 2016 U.S. presidential election. In that sense, Chinese leaders are aware of the challenges they face in the long term. But for Chinese policymakers, the path forward should be clear: work on China’s pressing domestic problems, grow the economy, and expand China’s international influence. No amount of U.S. pressure will deter China from that course. Trump’s posturing—and his tendency to put his personal interests ahead of his country’s—has made things easier than Beijing ever dreamed they could be.” That is not the current “narrative” being pushed by most commentators but it is an interesting one.

It is a point of view that is grounded in two strategic assumptions:

  • The ongoing and continuing rise of China; and
  • The nature of President Trump.

If Yadong Liu is correct then President Trumps own nature make him a facilitator of Xi Jinping’s ambitions, not an obstacle to them as many commentators seem to believe.

* CEFC and the China Energy Fund Committee have both been closely linked to people charged with violating the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, international money laundering and conspiracy, the U.S. Justice Department.

2 thoughts on “A contrarian view on Trump v. China”

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s