If it’s true (2) and It’s about time (2)

Global News reporter Mercedes Stephenson tweets:

Screen Shot 2018-08-06 at 06.13.37

If it is confirmed then it is about bloody time. Mr Sing has made, some analysts think, a serious strategic blunder by not seeking a seat in the House of Commons. I agree: the HoC is where Canadians expect to see politics done … not at summer barbecues or in church basement meetings. In the HoC he will get the TV exposure he needs and he can be compared and contrasted with both Justin Trudeau and Andrew Scheer every day … the sex appeal issue matters!

Conservative need to wish Mr Singh well. I know I’m repeating myself but:

  • The core Conservative vote is in the range of 20% to 25% (the worst was in 1993 when Prime Minister Joe Clark’s Progressive Conservatives won just 12.9% of the popular vote because Stockwell Day’s Canadian Alliance Party took 25+% of the vote). Conservatives, under various names, get 30% to 50% (Brian Mulroney in 1984) of the vote in most modern elections;
  • The core Liberal vote is the same, except that the Liberals have not gotten 50+% of the popular vote since 1940. The Liberals worst showing in modern times was in 2011 when, under Michael Ignatieff, they got less than 20% of the popular vote, but, like the Conservatives, they usually get 30+%; and
  • The NDP’s core vote is in the 10% to 20% range. It has fallen to as low as 6.88% (Audrey McLauchlin in 1993) and it has risen as high as 30+% (Jack Layton in 2011); and, therefore
  • Conservative do best when the NDP is strong enough to split the progressive vote and, conversely, the Liberals win majorities when the NDP is weak.

It’s going to take more than just having Jagmeet Singh’s sex appeal on display in the House of Commons for the Conservatives to unseat the Liberals in 2019 ~ it will take a suite of popular (populist?) policies, too, that can win back the suburbs around Vancouver and Toronto.

 

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