Safer, less safe and uh, oh …

OK, without using any scale, I would argue that the world is measurably “safer” because President Donal Trump and Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un will meet, on 12 Jun, in nobel-generic-nobel-prize-generic_650x400_81444278743Singapore. Do they deserve to share the Nobel Peace Prize? Why not? Given the fact that the Norwegian Nobel Committee thrives on controversy it ~ a gold ‘gong’ to Trump and Kim ~ would be a good choice. But, before we go handing our medals, let me say that world is also measurably more dangerous today because President Trump has decided to pull America out of the Iran nuclear deal. The danger does not lie in Iran getting nuclear weapons next week ~ although given the example of North Korea one can see why Iran might want them ~ it lies in the escalation of conflict between Israel and Iran.

My personal opinion is that China, not America, will dictate the terms of a peaceful Korean reunification because, I think, China has more to gain for it than anyone except the two Koreas themselves. In fact, I suspect, the deal that Xi Jinping wants will actually reduce America’s presence and prestige in East Asia.

My guess is that President Trump is betting (hoping?) that sanction can and will work, especially if they are coupled with Israel’s military prowess. My fear is that no-one is in full control in the region and Iranian sponsored actors like Hezbollah can provoke an Israeli response that will cause an open conflict with Russia …

netanyahu-and-putin-june-2012

… preventing that was, presumably, why Prime Minister Netanyahu travelled to Russia to meet with President Putin earlier this week. It is important to remember that Israel, not Russia and not America, is the only “superpower” that really matters in the Middle East because it is the only major, nuclear power with am existential threat to its very existence. Russia may have a lot of prestige invested in Syria but it can afford a “loss,” ditto for America … Israel sees the world through a much different lens.

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