OK, so, yesterday I said that “I hope that Andrew Scheer’s team will wipe the floor with the Liberals in 2019, no matter who is leading,” but day before yesterday I took note of this, from Michael de Adder in the Hill Times:
… and also this article by Campbell Clark in the Globe and Mail in which he says over the past two years, “the direction of the trend is clear: down … That seems [he says] to have started near the end of 2016, when the Liberals started to make some tough calls, such as approving the Trans Mountain pipeline and ditching their promises of electoral reform. It’s also when Mr. Trump was elected, and events overtook Mr. Trudeau’s agenda − particularly the threat to the North American free-trade agreement … [and] … The controversy over small-business tax changes might also have hurt support among men, or Mr. Trudeau’s February trip to India. But it’s not just one thing … [because] … Political scientists have documented differences in attitudes between male and female voters – as groups, of course, since neither gender votes monolithically. Women tend to be bigger believers in the value of government social programs than men and men tend to have more faith in market-based solutions. Men tend to be a little more conservative … [and] … Men might be a little more inclined to care that the Liberals are running deficits, but that’s not as big a vote-driver as some think … [but] … some Liberal MPs think the issues Mr. Trudeau’s government has focused on have struck fewer chords with male voters. Voters evaluate governments on whether they can relate to their priorities – if they don’t, they judge their mistakes more harshly.“
Plus, on Global News, Rahul Kalvapalle reports that “Discontent with the Trudeau Liberals has grown to such a level that if a federal election were held tomorrow, the Conservatives would romp to a comfortable win … according to a new Ipsos poll that found the Liberals to be hemorrhaging support even among their target demographics, namely the middle-class, women and millennials, with many progressives increasingly weighing up a vote for the NDP … [and] … Overall, 56 per cent of the 1,003 Canadians surveyed for the poll said the Liberals have fallen short of expectations, with 60 per cent saying it’s time for them to make way for another federal party.” This is the poll to which I assume the article points. One of the stand out points is that “Prime Minister Justin Trudeau may have a gender-balanced cabinet, but it’s the Conservative party that’s doing best with female voters … [because] … Thirty-five per cent of women say they’d vote for the Conservatives, with the Liberals snagging 30 per cent and the NDP not far behind at 26 per cent … [and] … The Conservatives also enjoy an advantage across income groups, with their lead increasing steadily with income. Their lead over the Liberals stands at three percentage points among people making $40,000 or less, and sits at a healthy 14 per cent in the $100,000+ income range.“
That “men tend to be a little more conservative,” is, I believe a valid political axiom but I think women also care about the massive debt that Team Trudeau is racking up, a debt that their grandchildren will have to pay off, and I also suspect that Justin Trudeau may be losing some of his “value” shine.
I think that as the national, continental and global economic (trade) and strategic situations worsen more and more women will wonder if Justin Trudeau’s Liberals are the right answer. I know the answer is “No!” If enough women and men come to the same conclusion over the next 18 months then that will be good news for Canada.