Good news for Andrew Scheer

Forum Research has a new poll which, I believe, is the first (maybe the second) since the summer of 2015 wherein any party other then the Liberals has been in the lead …

Screenshot 2017-09-24 10.57.53Copyright ©Forum Research Inc.

… as we approach the two year mark in the life of the Trudeau regime Forum Research says that “In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ amongst 1350 Canadian voters, amongst those decided and leaning, if an election were held today, almost four in ten (39%) say they would support the Conservatives, with more than a third (35%) saying they would support the Liberals … [and] … The NDP is supported by almost one sixth (15%), followed by the Bloc Quebécois (5%), and the Green Party (4%), with other parties securing (1%) … [that means that] … If an election were held today, the Conservatives would unseat the Liberals as government with a 169 seat minority. The Liberals would win 130 seats, the NDP 26, with 12 for the BQ, and 1 for the Green Party.” That is just a seat or two short of a majority and that is despite the fact that Forum Research says that “More than four in ten (43%) say they approve of Trudeau’s performance, which is down six points since August (August 24th: 49%) … [and] … Almost half (47%) say they disapprove of his performance, up five points in the same time period (August 24th: 42%) … [that means that] … His net favourable score drops to -4 from +7 in August, an eleven point swing (August 24th: +7) … [but] … Andrew Scheer sees approval amongst one quarter (26%) of voters and disapproval of almost a third (30%) … [thus] … His net favourable score is -1 …[but the key factor is that thus far] … Andrew Scheer has failed to make an impression on the plurality, however, with almost half (44%) saying they do not know whether they approve or disapprove.” That’s in sharp contrast to Justin Trudeau where only 1% say they don’t know enough about him.

Now, perhaps this is a rogue poll … they happen. But, perhaps again, Canadians are finally starting to wake up to the fact they they wanted change in 2015 but not this succession of broken promises and reckless overspending.

In any event Andrew Scheer and his team can see what must be done.

Canadians need to get to know and to like Andrew Scheer, and to become comfortable with the idea that he can and should lead our country. “Despite the dip in his popularity overall,Forum Research says, “more than a third (34%) see Trudeau as the best candidate for Prime Minister. Andrew Scheer is seen by 2 in 10 (20%) as the best PM, and Tom Mulcair is favoured by just over 1 in 10 (12%).” There is still a lot of work to do …

The Conservatives have to craft and be united behind a winning platform. It will, of necessity, not include some of my preferences … there has to be a bit one “something for everyone” but most of it has to be broadly acceptable to the majority of Canadians who are clustered around the middle of the bell curve. It needs to be fiscally responsible, socially, moderate and non-threatening to most Canadians. The Conservative campaign team needs to remember Lao Tzu’s good advice …

laotzu1

… Canadians may not really “like” Conservatives but they trust them to be good, prudent managers of the nation, especially on taxes and spending. The Conservatives need to make enough sensible, achievable promises and, at the same time, reassure Canadians that they not aiming to chop down the social safety net or disallow gat marriage or send Canadian soldiers back to Afghanistan.

 

 

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