Jumping ship?

Is Brad Trost getting ready to jump ship?

The failed CPC leadership candidate ~ he finished a credible 4th ~ who was, conspicuously, left out of the Conservative shadow cabinet, has now taken the Conservative Party of Canada to court, asking, the linked article says, “an Ontario court to compel the party to return the $50,000 his campaign was fined, or failing that, order an impartial review of the matter.

My guess is that the Conservative party thinks it was impartial in detecting the campaign that leaked the Party’s membership list to a pro-gun firearms group. I also guess that Andrew Scheer decided that Mr Trost is, simply, too outspoken in his social-conservative views, father to the “religious right” than Conservatives can be if they want to win in 2019; I suspect that’s the main reason he was left out of the shadow cabinet, despite his fairly strong finish in the leadership race.

I have speculated before that someone like Brad Trost could lead a “hard right,” socially conservative rump out ofd the CPC and that new party could get 5 to 10% of the popular vote, nationally, and, if that vote was “efficient,” not spread too thinly across too many ridings, it could give them 25± seats in the House of Commons …

Slide1

… especially if the leaders of all the other parties are avowed social progressives or, at the very least, known social moderates. There are many, many Canadians who hold strong religious views and many more who, even though they support equality and moves to end discrimination, are frightened by the rate of change and by the (sometimes) extreme demands of various special interest groups. The other parties have all made it nearly impossible for social conservatives to run for office. I do not believe that is good policy or good politics to try to enforce social moderation … I think it has to be brought to the fore by persuasion, not decree. But I think a good, persuasive campaigner ~ which Mr Trost is ~ could convince many social conservatives that the CPC is going in the same direction and that he could lead a break-away group and split the party.

There were, still are, a lot of socially-conservative Conservatives who were, and still are, upset at this sort of thing …

… they see Conservative support for equality as a direct, even personal attack on their most sincere, cherished and fundamental values. The two competing views may be irreconcilable.

So, my question to Mr Trost is: are you just upset about $50,000 or are you preparing to jump ship?

 

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