The situation in Europe is growing ever more complex and, potentially, dangerous as the British approach the Brexit referendum. As I said, the smart money is still onside with a “Stay in the EU” vote, but this map …
… which I got from several UK sources (on social media) shows, in darker shades of red, the greatest opposition to the Cameron government’s pro-EU (“Stay”) campaign (Isle of Wight, Bexhill & Battle, etc) down to, in lightest yellow, the areas most favouring the the “Stay” side. It’s interesting that the areas most favourable to Brexit are those that came out to vote Tory and gave Prime Minister Cameron a surprise majority in the last UK election. It is less surprising, perhaps, that Scotland, which rejected, the Tories, wants to stay in the EU.
The problem for Prime Minister Cameron (and Europe) is that:
- England (which favours the “Out” side: Population ~ 53+ million
- Scotland (which wants to “Stay”): Population ~ 5+ million )
- Ulster (which wants to “Stay”): Population ~ 2- million ) = ≤10 million and
- Wales (which wants to “Stay”):Population ~ 3+ million. )
If that map is anywhere near an accurate predictor of the referendum outcome then Europe’s fears will be realized and the entire EU might collapse, leaving the way open for further Russian aggression.
Anyway, it’s yet another potential threat ~ along with Da’esh/ISIL/ISIS and the whole of the Middle East and the South China Seas, and, and, and ~ that needs to be in the intelligence summary that must underlie and inform any serious Defence Review. The world is not full of “sunny ways” and unicorns, despite the wishes and hopes of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Canada’s Laurentian Elites.