Everyman’s Strategic Survey: Da’esh/ISIL/ISIS

downloadAAEAAQAAAAAAAAQxAAAAJDkyNzhiMWUxLWJlYWItNDQ1ZS05MDYxLTI5OGViYzk1YjdmYwThe Institute for the Study of War has published a very useful map showing Da’esh/ISIL/ISIS’ global strategy in a simple, three concentric circles format. The map shows three, colour coded, areas that cover most of the world, notably excluding South America and Sub-Saharan Africa, but including America, Australia and Canada :

Screenshot 2016-03-26 07.15.37

It is pretty straight forward, even common sense stuff:

  1. First: divide your area of operations into three further areas ~
    • An area of control, your base,
    • An area of influence, the regions into which you can “reach” pretty much at will, and
    • An area of interest, into which you wish to expand your influence; and
  2. Second: set reasonable, achievable short to mid term goals for your operations in each area, For Da’esh/ISIL/ISIS these are –
    • Defend and expand in the innermost area of control which they claim is Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon and Syria. Now, quite clearly, they don’t control most of that, but they do have the capacity, as they have shown, to operate, at will, in most parts of it,
    • Establish affiliates and Increase disorder in the “near abroad” area of influence, the second (of three) concentric circles, and
    • Defend and expand their footholds in the “far abroad” area of interest which includes Canada, and Attack and polarize there … including in Canada.

Stephane Dion Justin Trudeau

hqdefaultNow, Prime Minister Trudeau and Foreign Affairs Minister Dion may say that Canada is not at war with Da’esh/ISIL/ISIS, and that’s OK for them to say, even to believe … but, quite clearly, Da’esh/ISIL/ISIS is at war with Canada, whether Sunny Boy Trudeau  and M Dion understand that fact or not. The specific war aims are to “defend and expand” their base, in Canada, small and weak though it may be, and then use it to “attack and polarize” Canada.

Now, although it annoys the hell out of many, many so called, self described conservatives, it is important to not fall into the Islamophobia trap; real, smart conservatives know that some Canadians’ own Islamophobia is a key tool that aids and supports Da’esh/ISIL/ISIS in the “polarization” process. The face of Islam in Canada is not the screaming fanatic shown above, it is much, Much, MUCH more like this …


… our strategic goal must be to prevent the fanatics from influencing those children, but that is something that will be easier for Da’esh/ISIL/ISIS if we allow so called, self described conservatives to demonize the parents and the entire community. Most Muslims are your imageneighbours, down the street, your colleagues at work and the shop-keepers with who you share a sad joke about the sorry fate of the Leafs, yet again.  Some are bad ~ there’s no question about that ~ and our security services need to find them, neutralize them, isolate them, charge them (when possible), imprison them and deport them (again when possible). We, Conservatives, need to want to protect all Canadians from all harm, including from Da’esh/ISIL/ISIS recruiters.

This is a war of wills and a war for “hearts and minds.” We, Canadians, have a compelling, competing narrative to offer those children. We have, we know, a far better society than York-Town-Hall-
/ISIglebe_high1L/ISIS can offer, and we are making it better still, every day. We need to tell our story, especially in our schools. It’s a story of values and of the slow, steady, evolution of the institutions that make us a welcoming, secular, tolerant, liberal democracy in which everyone, regardless of race, creed, sex or whatever else, may succeed, through their own efforts, on their own merits.

Canada needs to be part of the fight that aims at killing Da’esh/ISIL/ISIS in its own area of control.

Canada needs to be part of the fight that aims to slow and stop Da’esh/ISIL/ISIS in its “second circle” area of influence, which includes e.g. the Philippines.

Canada needs to bring the fight against Da’esh/ISIL/ISI home, right into our classrooms, and weaken its “base” here in Canada by “selling” a better model of democracy, peace and prosperity than radical, fanatical, medieval Islamism can offer.


Published by Ted Campbell

Old, retired Canadian soldier, Conservative ~ socially moderate, but a fiscal hawk. A husband, father and grandfather. Published material is posted under the "Fair Dealing" provisions (§29) of the Copyright Act for the purposes of research, private study and education.

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